Black Swans Started The Selloff, Now Economic Gravity Will Finish It

Black Swans Started The Selloff, Now Economic Gravity Will Finish It

Nicholas Nassim Taleb wrote a book on this subject titled, The Black Swan .. A pair of black swans converged, sparking a market riot.. That brings us to Black Swan #2, which is a direct reflection of Black Swan #1.. Saudi will increase oil production from 9.7 million barrels per day to 10 million, and bump it up to 12 million, if necessary.. The year, energy found a bottom in February, after oil fell below $27 a barrel.. Now is not a time to own highly leveraged companies or high yield bonds.. When winter arrives in a market cycle, firms hunker down, just like people do when its cold outside.. These two black swan events probably tip the economy into a short and shallow recession.. Each investor has their own time horizon and risk constraints to consider, so I'll keep it high level.. There will be plenty of twists and turns as economic gravity is being restored.. It's nothing to fear, provided you stick with quality assets and have a long time horizon.. I am the founder and President of Silverlight Asset Management, an investment advisory firm serving high net worth private clients..