Investors’ Risk Appetite Is At An All-Time High. That Could Be A Problem.

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Person climbing the side of a mountain Two months. That’s how long the pandemic-triggered recession lasted, from February to April 2020, making it the shortest economic downturn in U. S.

history, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee. For those scratching their heads, the NBER makes clear that this does not mean the economy “has returned to operating at normal capacity,” only that the expansion got off to a (very) slow start soon after the whole world came to a screeching halt in early 2020. Indeed, the shockwaves of those two months are still being felt: Initial jobless claims remain at elevated levels. Commercial air travel, especially business travel, hasn’t quite fully recovered, though it’s showing signs of improvement. And then there’s unprecedented government spending and money-printing, which continue to this day. Due mainly to stimulus measures, the U. S. deficit is expected to hit $3 trillion this year; meanwhile, total assets held more...