Making 2021 a Defining Year

Making 2021 a Defining Year

In the wake of an unprecedented crisis comes a once-in-a-generation opportunity for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to transform their economies and build a better future for their citizens.

The choice for policymakers is clear: Will the pandemic set the region back for years, or will countries emerge from it on a path toward a more inclusive and green future?

As the region navigates the second year of the pandemic, our latest economic outlook shows both the risks and opportunities ahead for MENA countries.

Divergent outlooks, familiar challenges

A recovery is burgeoning in the region, with real GDP growth expected at 4 percent in 2021. The outlook, however, is surrounded by exceptional uncertainties, with significant divergence across countries.

Access to the COVID-19 vaccines largely defines a country’s near-term outlook. We expect early inoculators (such as Gulf Cooperation Council countries), on average, to achieve higher growth in 2021 relative to our projections in last October, while we see late inoculators (such as fragile and conflict-affected states and low-income countries) as facing a prolonged recovery. The outlook is also more subdued in countries reliant on contact-intensive sectors, especially tourism, and those without the ability to provide significant fiscal support when COVID-19 first hit.

Meanwhile,