Taiwan’s Export Boom Comes Off The Boil – Investing.com UK

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Taiwan’s Export Boom Comes Off The Boil – Investing.com UK

Taiwanese data show the growth rate cooling in the second quarter, corroborating recent PMI survey findings of slower export gains as the global economy cooled amid further COVID-19 waves. Strong pent-up demand for electronics goods in particular bodes well for Taiwan's export growth to pick up again, but this assumes recent supply chain disruptions will ease. Official data showed Taiwan's rising some 31.1% above levels of a year ago in June, marking the sixteenth month of continuous year-on-year expansion. Although down from a peak of 49.3% in January, the annual rate of increase remains higher than anything seen since 2010. Given that the global economy was struggling in the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic this time last year, it's perhaps not surprising that year-on-year growth has been strong in recent months. To get a more accurate picture of the current growth trend, it makes sense to look at month-on-month changes or, more preferably, three-month-on-three month changes, as the latter are usually less volatile and help identify turning points more easily. However, such comparisons are not straightforward as the published Taiwanese export orders series is not adjusted for seasonality. Hence, we've run the raw data through the X12-ARIMA program, which…