PROJECTS: Saudi Arabia: Poised to bounce back from pandemic lows

PROJECTS: Saudi Arabia: Poised to bounce back from pandemic lows

If one considers growth in Saudi against growth in the region or globally, “we will see the glass as half-empty,” she said. “Globally, we are looking at a V-shape recovery. The question is whether the recovery in growth will make up for lost activity over the last two years. In economies like Saudi Arabia, we could end up seeing that,” she said. Elaborating further, she said, “Global average growth for the period 2018-2021 is estimated at 2 percent, zero growth for the Euro area, 3.6 percent for emerging markets – including India and China, and 2.075 percent for the GCC.” In her opinion, the picture is not that bleak, considering that Arab countries went into the pandemic on the back of two to three years of lackluster economic activity.  For Saudi Arabia, the expected contraction is 5.4 percent for 2020, followed by a 2.6 percent expansion in 2021, but Eid-Oakden said growth is likely to be higher because of multiple factors like expanding international trade and the price of oil, which could be higher in the next two quarters than the current forecast. She said inflation of 3.7 percent by end-2021 is “manageable,” and a favorable debt to GDP profile “leaves room for optimism”