If Bitcoin Crashes Here, The Whole Market’s Going With It

If Bitcoin Crashes Here, The Whole Market’s Going With It

There are really only two options for bitcoin at this juncture. 1) Treasury auctions start failing and investors paralyzed by fears of hyperinflation pile into bitcoin, sending it to the moon. Or 2) it crashes. My guess is it crashes (I'll get into why later). If it does, it's likely to be reflective of a broader risk off move, but also a contributor to the volatility. Here's why. Bitcoin is above all else a gauge of risk-taking appetite in markets. Yes, some people buy it for its potential use-case as a store of value in a world torn apart by inflation, but the odds of such a future remain low “” even if the past year has improved the credibility of this story. Just look at markets year-to-date: Treasury yields and the U. S. dollar are rising in tandem after yet another $2 trillion stimulus and the most dovish Federal Reserve in history. That tells us the market is interpreting the spending as being a net positive for the economy, and the USD is strengthening because we are bouncing back faster than just about everywhere else. Bitcoin is still high risk, there's really not much to debate. Even its biggest