Lurking Geopolitical Threats To The Oil Market

Lurking Geopolitical Threats To The Oil Market

Share to Linkedin TEHRAN, IRAN - MARCH 08, 2020: A huge mural of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei Iran's Supreme Leader ... [+] painted next to a smaller one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (R) seen on Motahari street on March 8, 2020 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images) The current violence in Israel and the Gaza Strip is tragic and understandably holding the attention of the media and the world, but other, less noticed, developments could pose a significant threat to the price of oil. Perhaps it was Yogi Berra who said, "You're always surprised by what you didn't expect," but it's definitely a truism, nowhere else more than the oil markets. At present, there are three different developments related to Iran that could have a significant impact on the oil market, although the outcome of each is speculative. The Iranian-U. S. negotiations, more politically than socially distanced, could see a resumption of the JCPOA which would mean a serious relaxation of the sanctions currently imposed on Iran by the U. S., which might add 1 mb/d to the market, albeit after a delay of some months. The reported behind-the-scenes meetings between Iranian and Saudi officials could see a