If DAPL pipeline shuts down, hundreds of thousands of US oil barrels will lack an exit route in 2020 – Saudi Gazette

If DAPL pipeline shuts down, hundreds of thousands of US oil barrels will lack an exit route in 2020 – Saudi Gazette

OSLO “” A US district court has ruled that the largest outbound Bakken pipeline “” the Dakota Access Pipeline or DAPL “” shall be emptied within 30 days. If this decree remains in place, hundreds of thousands of produced barrels per day will lack an export route in 2020, Rystad Energy estimates, as alternative options such as other existing pipelines or railway transportation will not be able to fully take on the burden until next year.

If we assume that DAPL is unavailable for transportation from August 2020 and that rail exports remain at 300,000 bpd, that leaves around 750,000 bpd of available pipeline capacity (assuming maximum utilization) and local refining demand. Initially, this sounds like more than enough to absorb the 900,000 bpd of Bakken oil production from May 2020.

However, we must remember that production declines in April and May were predominantly driven by curtailments; most of these volumes will come back during the summer, assuming that a $40 WTI environment persists. The reactivation of curtailments will likely push statewide oil output back to an average of 1.2 million bpd in 2H20. Hence, with 300,000 bpd rail exports, remaining pipelines and local refineries alone will need to absorb 900,000 bpd