Pilots shortage may weigh heavily on global airline recovery

Pilots shortage may weigh heavily on global airline recovery

After being battered and thrust into a crisis by Covid-19, the global aviation industry is slowly emerging from the worst of the pandemic, but facing a likely challenge of pilot shortage.

A major question facing the aviation industry now, according to industry experts, is when demand will actually return.

For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond, noted researcher OliverWyman.

For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilisation rather than passengers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76% of pre-Covid levels.

In recent years, airlines have provided a more direct path to the cockpit for new pilots, expanding cadet training programmes and providing financing. With Covid, many of the airline pipeline levers have come under pressure.

Faced with mounting costs and a pilot surplus, cadet programmes are being trimmed. Some of the banks that have supported the financing seem to be reconsidering the risk profile of a new pilot cadet. Finally, the attraction of a stable and lucrative career path now looks much less secure.

“These trends have created a supply shock. Pilot candidates will think twice about entering such a cyclical industry. Many furloughed pilots will return, but some may pursue other