Egypt economy 2020 to grow 0.8% in worst case scenario: African Economic Outlook

Egypt economy 2020 to grow 0.8% in worst case scenario: African Economic Outlook

Egypt's real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.2% in 2020, from 5.6% in 2019, according to the African Economic Outlook 2020 Supplement amid COVID-19.

Under a baseline scenario of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic limited to the first half (H1) of 2020, the report added that Egypt will see a slight rebound to 2.7% in 2021.

The report said, "If the pandemic were to last until December 2020 (worst case), Egypt's economy would grow by a modest 0.8%, the only positive growth rate in North Africa.“

It highlighted that consumption, which accounted for an average of 84% of GDP over the last five years, would continue to support economic growth. However, the pandemic is expected to have a dire impact on those below the poverty line, representing 32.5% of the population according to 2018 figures, as well as informal workers, and the vulnerable.

The report also noted that Egypt's trade deficit, standing at above 12% of GDP in 2019, is structurally high. With tourism receipts and remittances sharply affected, the current account balance is projected to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2020 as a baseline, down from the -3.6% in 2019. This could potentially widen further, to about