Preliminary thoughts on our economic crisis

Preliminary thoughts on our economic crisis

I don’t think anyone denies that Egypt is going through a severe economic crisis.

Compounded by the global upheaval of recent years brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, and now more recently the Russian invasion of Ukraine – all alongside various local and regional developments.

Our government did well in informing the public early on that difficult times are ahead, preparing Egyptians in advance for a wave of price hikes. Denying the reality of the economic crisis only exacerbates and encourages rumors and ill-considered advice which harms everyone.

I hope this openness persists, and is not replaced by the usual tendency towards premature optimism or hasty declarations of improvement until there is indeed concrete justification for making such an announcement.

This particular crisis is thorny and dangerous because it is multifaceted. The changing exchange rate, current and anticipated price increases, declining tourism revenues, soaring wheat prices, the immediate consequences of an expected IMF agreement, rising national debt—all of these happening in conditions that make additional international borrowing and assistance more difficult.

But as we are still in the eye of the storm, with new developments unfolding daily, I will offer three preliminary observations in an attempt to understand what is happening and prepare ourselves for the