How bad is the US economy?

How bad is the US economy?

Good morning. Yesterday’s letter sniffed a little blood in the market water, so of course stocks rebounded immediately. But if you think the market is in great shape, we suggest you look, for example, at the Russell 2000, which is still down 10 per cent from its November peak, and has gone nowhere since February. We still think this market looks a bit ropey, as our British colleagues might say. Email us with corrective doses of optimism: [email protected] and [email protected].

American pessimism

I was very much struck by this interview in The New York Times with the Democratic pollster Brian Stryker. Following the recent Republican victory in the governor’s race in Virginia — a US state President Joe Biden won easily — Stryker conducted a series of focus groups with voters who had voted for Biden last year and then for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Glenn Youngkin, this autumn.

The results of his interviews are captured in this memo. The bit that matters for Unhedged is this:

People don’t like inflation. Everyone knows this. But the paragraph is nonetheless striking. People don’t like seeing jobs wanted signs? Those should be evidence of a strong economy. Americans, it seems, are seeing only one side of