Ukraine’s rising role in grain exports complicates impact of crisis: Braun

Ukraine’s rising role in grain exports complicates impact of crisis: Braun

FORT COLLINS, Colo.- Ukraine has significantly climbed the ranks in grain exports over the last decade, this year aiming for No. 3 in wheat and No. 4 in corn, though the latest conflict with Russia has instilled fear in markets over whether Ukraine’s export efforts can succeed.

The timing of this potential export disruption is poor since the world is still trying to recover from last season’s historic supply tightness and multiyear-high prices across all grains and oilseeds.

Traders have clearly expressed their nervousness. At Tuesday’s close, Chicago wheat futures Wv1 were up 5% so far this week, hitting two-month highs, and Paris-based Euronext wheat rose more than 6% to one-month highs.

Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, but Moscow denies planning an invasion. NATO on Monday said it was putting forces on standby and major energy-producing countries are discussing the protection of energy supplies, but Ukraine’s leader urged calm in a televised address Tuesday.

It is uncertain how exports might be affected, if at all, should the conflict escalate. Although not a direct comparison, the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory eight years ago did not necessarily hamper grain exports, though the destabilization in Ukraine’s currency raised crop worries.

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