War fallout: U.S. economy to slow, Europe risks recession and Russia to suffer double-digit decline

War fallout: U.S. economy to slow, Europe risks recession and Russia to suffer double-digit decline

In a first pass at gauging the economic impact from the Ukraine invasion, forecasters say the U.S. will grow more slowly with higher inflation, Europe's economy will flirt near recession and Russia will plunge into a deep, double-digit decline. The , the average of 14 forecasts for the U.S. economy, sees GDP rising by 3.2% this year, a modest 0.3% markdown from the February forecast, but still above-trend growth as the US continues to bounce back from the Omicron slowdown. Inflation for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred indicator, is seen rising by 4.3% this year, 0.7 percentage points higher than the prior survey in February. Forecasters cautioned, however, that much remains unknown about how the U.S. economy will respond to an oil shock that has seen crude prices surge quickly and the . Most see risks to their forecasts skewed toward higher inflation and lower growth. A complete removal of Russian oil from global supply could mean a far more grim outcome, economists said. "…The consequences of a complete shut-off of Russia's 4.3 (million barrels per day) of oil exports to the US and Europe would be dramatic,'' JPMorgan wrote over the weekend. "To the extent that this disengagement