Here’s Why Today’s Payrolls Number Could Be Make-Or-Break

Here’s Why Today’s Payrolls Number Could Be Make-Or-Break

Photo by Silas Stein/picture alliance via Getty Images Friday's nonfarm payrolls report that's expected to show 870, 000 nonfarm payrolls in the month of July is the most important piece of economic data of the recovery to-date. That's because it's the first time we're going into a payrolls report with the Citi Economic Surprise Index negative. The index is the most-used gauge by which we keep track of how well the economy is performing relative to economists' expectations. It soared to unprecedented heights last year in the immediate aftermath of the initial lockdown, as stimulus revived the economy and demand for tech equipment helped the economy kick back into gear faster than anyone expected. From there, the Surprise Index steadily fell, normalizing as analysts started to better understand the situation. In July, the Index flipped negative, meaning data has been coming in weaker than expected since. We got a hot ISM manufacturing print on Monday, but it wasn't enough to reverse a five-day negative streak in the Surprise Index. The status of the recovery has never been more dubious, and the baseline prediction for tomorrow's report is a whopping 870, 000 jobs. The economy hasn't been under this much pressure