Recession? Not Yet, But Investors Should Listen When Doves Cry

Recession? Not Yet, But Investors Should Listen When Doves Cry

Share to Linkedin I think a lot about recessions – analyzing what they were like in the past, what they will be like in the future and trying to predict when, inevitably, the next one will come. In the face of exogenous shocks, the U. S. economy tends to be resilient. But the simultaneous occurrence of multiple shocks, as we have been experiencing recently, increases the odds of recession. So some wonder if we are moving in that direction now. Economic growth will slow in 2022; the current consensus projection is 2. 6%, less than half of last year's 5. 5% GDP expansion. Yet slowing growth normalizing from an extremely strong position differs greatly from recession. NEW YORK - OCTOBER 07: A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange October 7, 2008 ... [+] in New York City. Despite a government debt buyout plan, the Dow continued to fall today, closing more than 500 points down. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images) History suggests that near-term recession worries are premature. For the last 15 months, despite the pandemic, no one applied the "R word" to the U. S. economy. Recession concerns were blissfully absent in the headwinds