Risk Of A Corona Hangover Recession Is Surging

Risk Of A Corona Hangover Recession Is Surging

Remember "Corona?" We always knew that label would lose out to the beer. So naturally everyone stopped saying it. Except Davey Day Trader Portnoy. His last video was December 15th. Trading hangover kicks in early when you pick stocks out of a Scrabble bag, but eventually it comes for all of us. The rolling bear market that began a year ago as an otherwise mundane selloff in Cathie Wood's famed ARK fund is enveloping more sectors and investing themes by the day, and it's only getting worse the more it looks like we suppressed Covid for good. Surging commodity prices are turning a daunting task by the Federal Reserve into a seemingly impossible one. Markets are telling us the odds of a Covid Hangover Recession are rising dramatically. One flashing neon sign is the 60% year-to-date advance in the price of crude oil, which is not as surefire a recessionary indicator as the Treasury yield curve, but has a nasty habit of inflicting economic malice when it goes up too fast. Speaking of the yield curve, Jay Powell's about to begin a tightening cycle with the flattest 2s-10s spread ever at the onset of interest-rate hikes, Schwab's Fixed Income Chief