Mena GDP growth to be ‘less than average of past 10 years’

Mena GDP growth to be ‘less than average of past 10 years’

The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) GDP growth this year will be less than the average of the past 10 years, according to FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Middle East & North Africa.

Oil producers will be burdened by lower Opec quotas, while drought will hit agriculture in North Africa. Overall, the region will be impacted by rate hikes and a soft global economy. The weather, geopolitics, the Ukraine grain deal and further Opec output cuts are key factors to watch.

The FocusEconomics panelists now expect inflation in Mena to rise slightly this year on average compared to last year. However, this will largely be due to currency weakness spurring prices in Egypt, Iran and Lebanon, and most countries will see lower inflation this year. Key factors to watch include the Ukraine grain deal and the impact of the recent drought on food prices.

Saudi Arabia cooling

Meanwhile, after clocking the quickest rate in more than 10 years in 2022, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia will cool in 2023 as the base effect toughens and oil output declines. Overall, GDP growth will be slightly below the average of the past decade. Key factors to monitor are US Fed hikes, global crude demand and Opec+ quota