Kuwait’s GDP to remain ‘flat to slightly negative’ in 2024: NBK

Kuwait’s GDP to remain ‘flat to slightly negative’ in 2024: NBK

Kuwait’s economic growth is likely to remain flat to slightly negative in 2024 on the back of additional oil sector cuts, the National Bank of Kuwait said in its latest quarterly economic brief. The non-oil sector will likely rise over 3%, spurred on by refining gains and still-growing private consumption. The recent GDP figures, published after a long delay, showed non-oil growth accelerating to 1.5% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2023, after several quarters of contraction. However, overall GDP growth was -1.3% due to declining oil sector output. Growth in the second quarter was driven by solid gains in the transportation and construction sectors, with the latter reflecting the rebound seen in project awards in 2023. Crude price NBK expects Kuwait export crude (KEC) to stay at $82 per barrel "on softer but still solid oil demand growth and supportive OPEC+ supply management,” the report said. During the ministerial meeting in November 2023, Kuwait agreed with the OPEC+ proposal to deepen and extend 2023’s voluntary production cuts into Q1 2024 and possibly longer to balance the market and prevent further oil stock builds. Kuwait’s output in Q1 2024 will fall by 135,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.41 million bpd. Oil