IMF Regional Economic Outlook projects 3.1 per cent GDP growth in MENA

IMF Regional Economic Outlook projects 3.1 per cent GDP growth in MENA

DUBAI, 2nd May, 2023 (WAM) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today hosted a hybrid event to launch the May 2023 Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for the Middle East and Central Asia region at the Dubai International Financial Centre.

The IMF finds that despite global shocks, growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was higher than expected last year. The IMF estimates that real GDP grew by 5.3 per cent, reflecting strong domestic demand and a rebound in oil production. However, growth is projected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2023 due to tight policies to restore macroeconomic stability, agreed OPEC+ oil production cuts, and the fallout from the recent deterioration in global financial conditions.

For oil exporters, non-oil GDP is forecast to expand by 3.7 per cent in 2023, broadly unchanged from 2022, as the positive momentum in the retail and service sectors in the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia is sustained due to abundant liquidity, continued reform momentum, and rapid acceleration of private investment.

After surging last year, inflation is forecast to remain elevated at 14.8 per cent this year before declining modestly in 2024.

Risks remain tilted to the downside and include potential further financial sector instability