Majority of fossil fuels need to stay underground to avert climate disaster, scientists say

Majority of fossil fuels need to stay underground to avert climate disaster, scientists say

LONDON — The vast majority of the world's known fossil fuel reserves must be kept in the ground to have some hope of preventing the worst effects of the climate emergency, according to new research. The peer-reviewed study, published in the scientific journal on Wednesday, found that 90% of coal must remain unextracted and nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gas must stay underground to have even a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This temperature threshold is the lower target of the , an accord widely recognized as critically important to avoid an irreversible climate crisis. The 1.5 degrees Celsius level is particularly crucial because beyond this internationally agreed goal, so-called tipping points become more likely. The study estimated that oil and gas production must decline worldwide by 3% each year through to 2050, implying that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade. Countries that are heavily reliant on oil and gas for state revenues, such as OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, are thought to be at particularly high risk unless they rapidly diversify their economies. The researchers, led by environmental and energy