Big Oil, Big Dividends And Changing Minds

Big Oil, Big Dividends And Changing Minds

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" It's frequently credited to economist John Maynard Keynes. A popular story goes that Keynes changed his mind on a financial issue, was criticized for his "flip flop"“”and then delivered the zinger. QuoteInvestigator. com researched the quip and concluded that Keynes never actually said it. (Keep that bit of market trivia in your back pocket.) Regardless, the facts have changed on big oil dividends. On September 9, 2015, I warned readers that Big Oil was a "Big Dividend Trap." Fast forward to April 2, 2021 and this "BO" is telling readers to go out and buy the "other BO's" (Big Oil's) biggest name“”Exxon XOM Mobil (XOM). Careful readers asked: "What gives?" A very fair question, and I do appreciate the attention to detail! Put simply, the fundamental facts changed. I turned bearish on crude oil prices themselves in April 2014, warning that then-$103 per barrel Texas tea was due to tumble. US production was at multi-decade highs, growing at its fastest rate ever. Crude oil stocks were plentiful and, if the supply situation wasn't bad enough, we had a classic contrarian indicator“”hedge fund managers were convinced that oil