IEA keeps oil demand forecast for 2022 steady: Update

IEA keeps oil demand forecast for 2022 steady: Update

Adds detail on Russian exports in paragraphs 8 and 9

London, 12 May (Argus) — The IEA has kept its forecast for global oil demand this year unchanged at a level above its estimate of current supplies, but said with risks to its forecast "likely to the downside", there is unlikely to be an acute deficit.

But it cautioned that increasing seasonal demand throughout the northern hemisphere summer could lead to strain, if refiners cannot keep pace. Reduced exports of Russian products and limited spare refining capacity have aggravated tightness in products markets, according to the IEA's monthly Oil Market report that was published on 12 May.

Gasoline and middle distillate margins are running at historically elevated levels in all regions. "The refining system in the west is sort of running flat out," said BP's chief executive Bernard Looney on 3 May.

"While a first tranche of SPR releases halted the precipitous decline in OECD industry stocks in March, crude made up the majority of it and product stocks have continued to fall," the IEA said.

The Paris-based group predicts global demand at 99.4mn b/d this year, the same forecast it gave in its previous report, for year-on-year growth of 1.8mn b/d. Most of the