OPEC Could Win Big As Supermajors Fend Off Environmentalists

OPEC Could Win Big As Supermajors Fend Off Environmentalists

Environmentalists and shareholders concerned about the risks of investing in oil in the energy transition were not the only winners of last week's historic rebuke of Big Oil by investors and society.

While the growing discontent with the largest international oil firms resulted in stinging defeats in Exxon and Chevron's boardrooms and in a Dutch courtroom where Shell was ordered to cut emissions more than it has pledged to, OPEC was quietly sitting on the fence and contemplating its next short-term move.

While environmentalists celebrated a "historic win & tears of joy“ in The Hague, somewhere in Riyadh, the rulers of the world's largest oil exporter may have celebrated, too. That's because if international supermajors drastically cut emissions and reduce upstream investment to meet increasingly demanding calls for aligning with the Paris Agreement goals, it will be the national oil majors“”most of which belonging to OPEC's biggest producers“”that will likely fill any gap in global oil supply, both in the short term and in the long run.

Add to this the continued capital investment discipline of U.S. shale following last year's price crash“”despite rising oil prices“”and