Russia’s current account stabilises despite higher oil prices

Russia’s current account stabilises despite higher oil prices

(MENAFN- ING) The $12. 3b current account in October was big, but no bigger than the 3Q21 average, despite tighter energy markets. Exports are likely to catch up with it in November-December, but so will imports and FX purchases. The local fundamentals are therefore in stalemate, putting portfolio flows back into the spotlight, and these are quite volatile ShareAuthor Dmitry Dolgin Newsletter Russia's preliminary balance of payments estimate for the first 10 months of 2021 suggests little change in the current account surplus in October compared to the 3Q21 monthly average. That, however, did not prevent the ruble from showing a noticeable 2. 2% appreciation against the US dollar and 3. 8% against the euro. Based on the monthly central bank estimates (subject to subsequent revisions), the current account surplus totalled US$12. 3b in October (US$94. 4b year-to-date), which is close to the US$13. 6b monthly average seen in 3Q21. We expected October numbers to stay in the US$10-15b range, so we take the actual result as strong but largely neutral. Nevertheless, we note that the current account surplus is stable despite a noticeable increase in the average monthly Urals price from US$70-73/bbl in 3Q21 to US$81/bbl in October. Moreover,