This Is Not Your Father’s Energy Crisis

This Is Not Your Father’s Energy Crisis

Share to Linkedin Would you believe that a positive development last quarter (supply chain improvement) led to a negative headline outcome (a 1. 4% 1Q GDP contraction, the first since the pandemic plunge)? This paradox may explain why markets treated the negative GDP report as good news, with equities rallying 2. 5% that day. More stable core GDP components, such as investment and consumption, accelerated over the past two quarters. This bodes favorably for a growth rebound. A negative GDP print outside a recession is not unprecedented; it was last seen in 2011 and 2014. Worries among investors about an economic slowdown caused two market-focused recession indicators – credit spreads and commodities – to worsen over the last month but overall recession risk remains low. WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 14: Prices for gas at an Exxon gas station on Capitol Hill are seen March 14, ... [+] 2022 in Washington, DC. The cost of gasoline continues to rise across the globe and in the United States due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continued inflation associated with the global pandemic. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Yet spiking oil prices have raised recessionary fears reminiscent of the 1973 Arab oil