US crude output forecasts too aggressive: Pioneer

US crude output forecasts too aggressive: Pioneer

New York, 5 May (Argus) — Official forecasts showing US crude production will grow rapidly this year and next may be overstated, according to the chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources.

"The growth profile the EIA has and some of the other think-tank firms — it is too aggressive over the next two years for US oil production," Scott Sheffield said today.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects domestic output will increase by 820,000 b/d to an average of 12.01mn b/d this year, before climbing by 940,000 b/d in 2023 to a record 12.95mn b/d.

But Sheffield pointed to recent reports showing output has been flat over the past few months even while the rig count has increased. He also cited labor constraints, shortages of hydraulic fracturing fleets as well as general cost pressures across the shale patch.

"It is going to be tough to hit some of the numbers," Sheffield, whose company is the biggest producer in the Permian, said in relation to the output forecasts. "It makes me even more bullish about some of the oil price numbers that are out there."

With many publicly traded operators focused on improving investor returns rather than expanding drilling, that acts as a further brake on