Vladimir Putin never believed the West would cut off Russian oil: that was a grave mistake

Vladimir Putin never believed the West would cut off Russian oil: that was a grave mistake

A Western oil embargo against Russia raises the geostrategic stakes exponentially. What was almost unthinkable last week looks almost unstoppable this week. Ukrainian resistance and outraged moral opinion in the democracies has changed the character of this war, and changed what the West is prepared to do. The White House is sending emergency missions to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to find extra barrels . The US is pushing for a quick deal with Tehran on nuclear proliferation to bring back Iranian crude. All normal diplomatic reservations are being set aside. It is this – as much as comments by top US diplomat Anthony Blinken – that tells us Washington really is going for broke. You can hear the footsteps of the world's only real superpower bearing down fast. The West has the strategic depth to endure the sudden loss of 4.3m barrels a day of Russian crude, the lion's share sold to Europe and Nato democracies. It will be painful but is technically and economically doable. A crude blockade will make it impossible for the Kremlin to continue waging serious offensive war in Ukraine beyond a few weeks. There is a high chance that it will set off the internal