BP Energy Outlook 2023: War Accelerates Oil And Gas Decline, Instability Pushes Renewables To 60%, Russian Energy Takes A Hit.

BP Energy Outlook 2023: War Accelerates Oil And Gas Decline, Instability Pushes Renewables To 60%, Russian Energy Takes A Hit.

bp has recently presented its 2023 Energy Outlook. This annual survey, and the data analysis behind it, is highly regarded. The new perspective emphasizes the Russian war in Ukraine. This is likely to swing the pendulum away from "business as usual" and toward the Paris goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. The argument is that instability of oil and gas markets will motivate countries to develop their own renewables at a more rapid pace. bp considers three scenarios. The scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. Rather, the scenarios are designed to span a wide range of possible outcomes to 2050. Their purpose is to help shape a strategy that is resilient to the many uncertainties of the energy transition. The first scenario bookend is "business as usual" which it calls New Momentum (I use the acronym BusAsUs for clarity). The second bookend is Net-Zero, which identifies with the goal of the Paris accords: that by 2050, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will still be generated, but an equivalent amount will be removed or stored underground. Fewer stories like this The third scenario is called Accelerated, which builds in the war