Iran’s new nuclear normal gets boost from oil exports

Iran’s new nuclear normal gets boost from oil exports

The normalization of Iran’s nuclear program 

The United States remains on the verge of an arrangement with Iran that the Biden administration is hesitant to call an "agreement," and that reportedly includes increased restrictions and monitoring of its nuclear program in return for some sanctions relief as well as the release of US citizens detained in Iran.

We recently explained the rough framework of this understanding and Biden’s deterrence/diplomacy policies toward Iran here, which complements other regional diplomatic activity such as the Iran-Saudi rapprochement and the reintegration of Syria into the Arab League. 

Unlike the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was solely focused on Iran’s nuclear program, Biden’s approach appears to explicitly link the nuclear talks with what Mark Fitzpatrick calls a "cease-fire" by Iran-backed militias on Americans in Iraq and Syria.

Among the power brokers in Iraq’s ruling political alliance, the Coalition Framework (CF), are the political wings of those militias and other parties and individuals that maintain close ties with Iran. Tehran, therefore, seems to have less incentive to make Iraq a US-Iran battleground these days.

And while Iran surely wants the payday that will come from the relief of frozen assets and some sanctions relief, it is in no rush.