Turn in global oil markets may be shortlived

Turn in global oil markets may be shortlived

As an energy crisis engulfs Europe, global oil markets have offered modest relief, with crude prices drifting lower while traders grow anxious about the global economy. But the turn may be shortlived.

For now, cheaper oil is being welcomed by global leaders battling decades-high inflation. US president Joe Biden, whose approval ratings shrank as petrol prices scaled the heights a few months ago, has not wasted the opportunity to tell Americans that their drive is getting cheaper again.

Oil markets have avoided the apocalyptic scenarios energy analysts were warning of just six months ago, when a 1970s-style shock seemed unavoidable as rampantly rising post-pandemic demand met the possibility of new supply disruption.

JPMorgan said Brent oil could hit $300 a barrel if western sanctions on Russia resulted in a large shutdown of the country’s oil sector. But it was trading at $99.72 a barrel on Wednesday, down more than 28 per cent since this year’s high near $140, struck in the days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

That is still a lot to pay for oil — almost twice the long-term average price, and more than enough to keep churning out profits for producers from Texas to the Kremlin. Still, a price shock