Four Numbers to Gauge China’s Climate Ambitions

Four Numbers to Gauge China’s Climate Ambitions

China will begin its biggest political meeting of the year with a grim mark on its record. Despite President Xi Jinping's pledge in September to reduce carbon emissions to net zero in 2060, the country was the only major economy last year where pollution increased, according to International Energy Agency figures released Tuesday.

That makes the details of the country's climate policy in its 14th Five Year Plan published Friday crucial. If it lives up to Xi's promise to cap emissions in the coming decade and push them down rapidly thereafter, the world will have started turning the corner on two centuries of carbon emissions, as we've argued. If it falls short, our prospects of avoiding the ravages of climate change will dwindle drastically.

The texts of Five Year Plans tend to be a mixture of Communist Party jargon, airy pabulum, and a few solid material targets. It's the latter that will determine whether this year's is worth more than the paper it's written on. With the European Union pledging to reduce emissions 55% by 2030, here are our estimates of the numbers China needs to match that ambition.

Renewable generation capacity: 1,100 gigawatts by 2025.

We already have a good idea of where