Beijing Confronts a Smaller, Grayer China Dream

Beijing Confronts a Smaller, Grayer China Dream

China is graying much more rapidly than many demographers expected. That won’t be enough to derail its rise—but it will pose a serious challenge to its savings and export-heavy economic model. It could also mean a markedly smaller Chinese economy by midcentury than most mainstream economists expect.

The top-line results of China’s once-a-decade census were released Tuesday, showing a sharp drop in births and a steeper drop in the working age population than expected. China’s fertility rate is now just 1.3 children per woman, in the same league as aging societies such as Japan and Italy. Originally the results had been due in April, prompting widespread speculation that the numbers would be bad.