Russia’s war in Ukraine will slow economic growth and increase inflation, says IMF

Russia’s war in Ukraine will slow economic growth and increase inflation, says IMF

Global economic prospects have been further set back because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF has revised its projection for global growth downwards to 3.6% in both 2022 and 2023.

Here, its economic expert outlines what must be done to improve prospects around the world.



Global economic prospects have been severely set back, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This crisis unfolds even as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic. Even before the war, inflation in many countries had been rising due to supply-demand imbalances and policy support during the pandemic, prompting a tightening of monetary policy. The latest lockdowns in China could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains.

In this context, beyond its immediate and tragic humanitarian impact, the war will slow economic growth and increase inflation. Overall economic risks have risen sharply, and policy tradeoffs have become even more challenging.

Compared to our January forecast, we have revised our projection for global growth downwards to 3.6 percent in both 2022 and 2023. This reflects the direct impact of the war on Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, with both countries projected to experience steep contractions. This