Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Real Yields to Determine Next Move

Weekly Fundamental Gold Price Forecast: Real Yields to Determine Next Move

It was a great week for gold prices across the board. Every single gold-cross gained at least +3%, but for one – gold in USD-terms (XAU/USD), which added +2. 57%. The top performing gold-cross was gold in EUR -terms (XAU/EUR), which added +3. 72%, while gold in AUD -terms (XAU/AUD) and gold in NZD -terms (XAU/NZD) were not far behind, adding +3. 60% and +3. 66%, respectively. The bulk of gains emerged mid-week after the October US inflation report (CPI), which showed the highest price pressures in the United States since 1990. Gold's gains came as rising realized inflation readings were met with a corresponding jump in inflation expectations, which outpaced nominal long-end yields, curating an environment of falling real yields. If US real yields stay near record lows, gold prices may still be able to tack on further gains in the coming sessions. The turn through the ides of November will see several more inflation reports due from G10 economies, which may provide another boost for gold prices in the middle of the week. Speeches from various European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policymakers could help determine whether or not gold's gains stick, insofar as central bankers ignoring the