2021 predictions: what is likely to happen to the price of oil?

2021 predictions: what is likely to happen to the price of oil?

The price of Brent crude oil will remain “subdued” in the first quarter of 2021, but could rise to $55 per barrel by the fourth quarter of the year, according to an industry expert.

Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $51.28 a barrel early Wednesday morning as a US coronavirus fiscal aid package and a decline in crude oil inventories lifted prices.

Added optimism over the global roll-out of coronavirus vaccines also continues to impact prices.

Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst, Rystad Energy, told Arabian Business they have revised their overall 2021 Brent base case up to $51 (from $48).

She said: “The increase is more than justified by our tightening global crude and liquids balances.”

Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst, Rystad Energy

Risks remain on the demand side and a slip-up in vaccine implementation, a third wave of coronavirus cases, or a serious wave of virus mutations, could all tether and flatten demand growth and put downward pressure on oil prices.”

However, Dickson said a weaker dollar will also provide marginal support to oil, and should low central bank rates and historic government spending continue to be the consensus in 2021, “the stock market has reason to remain feverish”.

As OPEC+ prepares to