Middle East will return to ‘relative normality’ by H2

Middle East will return to ‘relative normality’ by H2

The rollout of coronavirus vaccines should allow a return to relative normality in the Middle East in the second half of 2021, while much of the region's economies will benefit from higher commodity prices and stronger external demand, a report by Oxford Economics said on Tuesday.Across the region, the vaccine rollout has been uneven but has progressed particularly well in the UAE and Bahrain, where a relatively large percentage of the population has been vaccinated compared to neighbouring countries and global peers.According to the Economic Update report, the Middle East's GDP forecast for this year stands at 2.5 per cent, similar to the average pace from 2010 to 2019 (2.6 per cent). This follows the unprecedented decline seen in 2020, estimated to be five per cent.For the UAE, Oxford Economics has forecast a robust economic rebound, with non-oil GDP growth predicted to rise above five per cent in 2022. The widely anticipated success of Expo 2020, rescheduled to October this year, which will create an opportunity for a faster recovery in Dubai. Improved relations with Qatar and Israel will also boost visitor numbers, the report said.Michael Armstrong, ICAEW regional director said while vaccine rollouts are underway, Middle Eastern governments must